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PURPOSE
Develop an integrated methodology of risk analysis that considers financial, geopolitical, environmental and circularity risks to promote resilience and sustainability in the hard to abate sector of ceramic production.
Typology: Industrial Research
Final Result: RF2 | Supply risk assessment model and prototype (financial, geo-political, environmental).
Responsible Partner: University of Brescia
Duration: 36 months
Operative Unit: Brescia
DESCRIPTION
WP2 aims to develop an established methodology for assessing supply chain risk in the ceramics industry supply chain, taking into account various risk factors such as financial, geopolitical, environmental and circularity.
In a global and interconnected yet fragile supply chain environment, a systemic approach that considers all variables is essential. Currently, risk assessments are limited to a few aspects and have limited coverage of emissions and environmental aspects, while instead the public interest is growing.
WP2 aims to create a prototype calculation and visualisation tool for supply chain risk, facilitating the collection of data needed for a comprehensive assessment, including carbon footprint.
The project will combine systematic literature reviews, model development and case studies to test and validate the prototype, with the aim of improving the resilience and sustainability of industrial supply chains and making the model applicable to other Italian manufacturing sectors.
ACTIVITIES
In order to achieve the purpose of the WP, the activities described below have been planned.
2.1 Carbon footprint and circular assessment: conceptual model developmentDevelop a carbon footprint model for the circular supply chain, defining sources of environmental impacts and standardised calculation methods.2.2 Carbon Footprint and Circular Assessment: Prototype implementation, application and validationImplement and apply the Carbon Footprint and Circular Assessment model to case studies to validate and improve environmental metrics. 2.3 Supply chain risk assessment: conceptual model developmentDevelop a supply chain risk assessment model that considers financial, geopolitical, circularity and environmental factors for the supply chain.2.4 Supply chain risk assessment: Prototype implementation, application and validationImplement and test the supply chain risk assessment model on case studies to validate metrics and economic impact estimates.
RESULTS
The results achieved so far are detailed below.
2.1 Carbon footprint and circular assessment: conceptual model developmentResearch on the themes of Carbon Footprint and Circular Assessment has highlighted that, despite the existence of consolidated standards for emission reporting at the organizational or product level, a unified methodology to evaluate the environmental impact of an entire supply chain is still lacking. In particular, Scope 3 emissions – which represent the largest share of total emissions – are difficult to measure due to the limited availability of primary data and the lack of structured collaboration among supply chain actors.To fill this gap, the conceptual model of Carbon Footprint of Supply Chain (CF-SC) was developed. It is designed to estimate the aggregate emissions of a supply chain based on financial and supply relationships between companies. In addition, a new calculation approach, the “CFO-allocation-based method”, was proposed, allowing companies to estimate upstream Scope 3 emissions using the Organizational Carbon Footprint data of their suppliers, without resorting to costly and complex Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies for each product or service. Although less precise than specific LCAs, this method represents an effective compromise between accuracy and economic feasibility, especially in supply chains characterized by homogeneous production.In parallel, the research analyzed existing models for assessing the circular economy, highlighting both their potential and their limitations. Based on these findings, a new circularity assessment model oriented towards decarbonization was developed. This model measures a company’s readiness to adopt circular practices with concrete impacts on emission reduction. It identifies six strategic areas of intervention: use of secondary raw materials, design for durability and reuse, end-of-life management, energy efficiency, sustainable logistics, and collaboration among supply chain partners.In summary, the research developed a methodological and operational framework that supports companies and supply chains in measuring, reducing, and making their emissions visible, integrating the decarbonization approach with circular economy principles and thus contributing to the construction of concrete pathways toward sustainability.2.3 Supply chain risk assessment: conceptual model developmentResearch on supply disruption risk began with an analysis of the existing literature and tools. This revealed that current risk assessments are often focused on specific aspects – mostly financial, operational, or geopolitical – without offering a truly integrated model that also includes sustainability considerations. This gap is particularly critical in global supply chains, which are increasingly complex and interconnected, where exposure to external factors raises both the probability and severity of disruptions. The Italian ceramic sector is an exemplary case, as it is characterized by international supply networks and an increasing exposure to sustainability-related risks.To address this need, the Systemic Risk Assessment Model of Supply Chain (SyRAM-SC) was developed. The model integrates six main risk categories within a single framework: financial, operational, geopolitical, natural, cyber, and ESG (exposure to non-compliance with environmental, social, or governance standards). Each dimension is measured through specific indicators, drawn from existing tools or developed ad hoc: from economic solidity ratings to sustainability indexes, from operational parameters such as delays and non-conformities to data on geopolitical, climate, and cyber risks. In parallel, economic damage indicators were defined, covering loss of clients, missed orders, recovery costs, and reputational damage. The interaction between probability and impact enables a synthetic estimation of a company’s vulnerability to disruptions.The model can be applied at two levels. The single-supplier application focuses on a specific supplier, allowing assessment of overall risk, identification of the most vulnerable partners, and support for operational decisions in selection and mitigation. The aggregated application broadens the perspective to the entire supply chain, including indirect suppliers (tier 2, tier 3, etc.), and introduces a new dimension: indirect supply risk, which measures the exposure of each supplier to the upstream levels of the chain. This makes it possible to calculate the systemic risk of an entire supply network.In conclusion, the SyRAM-SC stands as a comprehensive and dynamic model, able to capture the interdependence among different supply chain actors and analyze how negative events propagate throughout the chain. It does not merely measure isolated risks but integrates diverse perspectives, enabling the evaluation of suppliers across all relevant dimensions.
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